Candlestick patterns don't have fixed win rates — the SAME pin bar might be a 60% trade at a major level in a trend, and a 45% trade in the middle of Sunday chop. The pattern is just the trigger. The edge lives in the context stack underneath it.
The context checklist — run it before any pattern entry
- REGIME: trending or ranging? (Structure lesson.) Reversal patterns fight trends; continuation patterns die in ranges.
- LOCATION: is price AT something — support, resistance, a moving average, a prior breakout? No level, no trade.
- MOMENTUM: is the move into the pattern exhausted (shrinking bodies, wicks growing) or fresh?
- VOLATILITY: hot tape exaggerates every pattern; quiet tape starves follow-through.
Four yeses = take it and size normally. Two yeses = half size or skip. The checklist is the difference between trading patterns and collecting them.
This lesson is deliberately short because its job is to be REMEMBERED: every lesson in this category is a trigger, and triggers only pay inside context.